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which if passed by a majority of lawmakers would
remove the prime minister from office and possibly trigger
early elections.
The political
crisis is almost certain to distract the government at a
time when the U.S. is pushing Islamabad to do more to help
turn around the war in neighboring Afghanistan, although
security is largely the purview of Pakistan's powerful
military. It also all but guarantees lawmakers will make no
progress anytime soon on solving the economic problems that
have frustrated ordinary Pakistanis and forced the country
to rely on $11 billion in loans from
the International Monetary Fund.
With his job on
the line, Gilani was scrambling Monday to secure the support
of opposition groups to avoid a no-confidence vote. He met
with representatives of the biggest opposition party,
the Pakistan Muslim League-N, as well the second largest
opposition group, the Pakistan Muslim League-Q.
But it was
unclear whether he had made any headway as of late Monday
afternoon. One opposition leader said his party had nothing
against the prime minister, but stressed that it could only
support Gilani's government if it improved its performance.
"Today we gave
support with a condition, and that condition is the real
issues of the people are addressed," said Chaudhry Shujaat
Hussain of the PML-Q.
PML-N leader
Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan avoided directly addressing whether
his faction would support a no-confidence vote.
"We will not
destabilize this government, but if it loses its majority we
will not support it," he said. "We will no way give it a
shoulder."
Pakistani
President Asif Ali Zardari is the head of the People's
Party. His position as president would likely be safe even
if the Party loses its majority in Parliament.
Analysts
speculated that Zardari might be willing to replace Gilani
with a premier more acceptable to other parties to avoid the
PPP's losing power. But Zardari spokesman Farhatullah Babar said
Monday the president backs Gilani and won't abandon him.
The MQM said
Sunday it was quitting the ruling coalition after the
government announced hikes in gas and heating oil prices on
New Year's Eve.
"The petrol
bomb the government has dropped on the people of Pakistan
has forced our party to part ways with such insane
decisions," said Faisal Subzwari, an MQM leader.
The MQM filed
an application on Monday to formally switch to the
opposition. Its Cabinet ministers already tendered their
resignations last week. Another, smaller party, the Jamiat
Ulema Islam, announced in December it would switch to the
opposition and its application is under review. Without the
two, the ruling coalition will fall about a dozen seats
short of the 172 needed to keep a majority.
Analysts said
Gilani had only weeks, if not days, to keep his coalition
intact or scrape together a new one. However, he appeared to
have a bit of breathing room because there is no guarantee
the fragmented opposition will be able to close ranks and
oust Gilani. The MQM and the PML-N, headed by former Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif, have frosty relations.
Sharif's party
also would likely be loath to take the reins of a new
government at such a difficult time.
The IMF has
demanded that Pakistan significantly reform its economy,
including deep cuts to its deficit, in order to keep the
loan program going. The international assistance took on
added importance after the massive floods of late 2010 that
affected some 20 million people.
But the
economic reforms, notably a revised general sales tax, are
unpopular and have given the opposition — as well as the MQM
and the JUI — something to rail against. Many analysts
speculate the parties could be using the crisis as a tactic
to win concessions from the ruling party.
The MQM upped
the pressure on the ruling PPP on Monday, raising the
possibility that it might quit its partnership with the
People's Party in the coalition that governs Sindh province.
The lack of
progress and political bickering has upset many Pakistanis.
"There is no
electricity, no gas, no jobs and they are fighting one
another," said Arif Fasiullah, 35, of the central city of
Multan, in a recent interview. "They do not pass any
legislation. They just do dirty politics."
The inflation
rate in Pakistan is above 15 percent, according to
government statistics, and the poorest are feeling the pain
most.
The People's
Party took power in February 2008 in elections that brought
Pakistan out of nearly a decade of military rule. It rode to
power on a wave of sympathy after its leader, Benazir
Bhutto, was assassinated.
But its
popularity has slipped as Pakistan has grappled with severe
economic problems and frequent militant attacks.
The PML-N holds
the second largest number of seats in parliament and is
believed to be the most popular party in the country.
It is more
aligned with religious conservatives than the People's Party
is and has not been as vocal in opposing the Taliban — a
position that could cause some discomfort in Washington,
which needs Pakistan's help in ending the war in neighboring
Afghanistan.
One unclear
factor is where the military stands on the latest political
wrangling.
Army chief Gen.
Ashfaq Parvez Kayani is reported to be unhappy with the
current leadership, but not enthusiastic about its possible
replacement. The army, under the leadership of retired Gen.
Pervez Musharraf, ousted the PML-N's Sharif, who was then
prime minister, in a coup in 1999. But Kayani has not
indicated any interest in staging a coup if the current
government is toppled. |
