|
Libya's
official name is the Jamahiriya, or "state of
the masses", but 41 years after seizing power, a
defiant Muammar
Gaddafi still
rules through secretive decision-making and as a
family enterprise in which his sons play leading
roles.
Now facing the worst unrest since the
revolution, Gaddafi's moves are as opaque as ever.
Amid feverish speculation about the future,
everything he has ever done suggests he will not
relinquish power voluntarily. "We will all die on
Libyan soil," sources close to his family told the
Saudi paper al-Sharq al-Awsat.
According to unconfirmed reports the
repression in Benghazi in eastern Libya is being led
by his son Khamis, the Russian-trained commander of
an elite special forces unit. Another son, Saadi, is
there too, with Abdullah al-Senussi, veteran head of
military intelligence.
Last Friday Gaddafi appeared briefly
in central Tripoli to cheers from supporters but has
not spoken in public or left the heavily-guarded Bab
al-Aziziya barracks in the centre of the capital –
the target of a US bombing raid in 1986.
The crushing of protests in Benghazi
and elsewhere bears the hallmark of his instinctive
brutality when faced with challenges to his rule,
analysts say.
In the 1980s he sent hit squads to
murder exiled "stray dogs" who challenged the
revolution. Islamist rebels at home were crushed in
the 1990s and in 1996 1,000 prisoners were gunned
down in an infamous prison massacre.
"For Gaddafi it's kill or be killed,"
said opposition writer Ashour Shamis. "Now he's gone
straight for the kill."
The uprisings in neighbouring
countries do not appear to have shaken his resolve
to stay in power. He sent messages of support to
Tunisia's Zine al-Abdine Ben Ali and to Egypt's
Hosni Mubarak before they stepped down.
Regime survival has marked Gaddafi's
moves in recent years – from the handover of the
Lockerbie bombing suspects to the surrender of his
WMD programme after the invasion of Iraq in 2003.
No-one expects him to give up peacefully. He may
make gestures such as promising closer consultation
or boosting investment in housing and social
services, but that seems unlikely to satisfy
protesters after such brutality towards ordinary
Libyans.
"Gaddafi will find it hard to make
concessions in order to survive," said Sir Richard
Dalton, a former British ambassador to Libya. "The
attitude of the regime is that it's all or nothing."
Another key question is whether the
condemnation of western friends will have any
effect. Libya's warning to the EU that it will halt
cooperation over illegal immigration suggests it
will not.
Power in Libya is devolved in some
areas to popular committees and there is sometimes
talk of dramatic restructuring of government. But
all key policy areas – defence, foreign affairs, and
security – are firmly in Gaddafi's hands.
Like Mubarak, the Libyan leader has
no designated successor. Gaddafi's advice is likely
to be coming from his son Muatassim, his national
security adviser and leading contender to succeed
him. Two years ago Muatassim tried to set up another
special unit to rival the one commanded by Khamis.
In recent months both have seemed
more powerful than another brother, the reformist
Saif al-Islam. Saif focused on civil society and
political and economic reform but has taken a back
seat in the face of opposition from the old guard
and the revolutionary committees. "Creating the
appearance of useful employment for Gaddafi's
offspring has been an important objective for the
regime," reported the US ambassador in a cable
released by WikiLeaks.
Other sons have embarrassed their
father. Saadi is notoriously ill-behaved, with a
record of scuffles with police in Europe, abuse of
drugs and alcohol. Hannibal's misbehaviour in Geneva
caused a long rupture in Swiss-Libyan relations.
"Gaddafi is a complicated individual
who has managed to stay in power for 40 years
through a skilful balancing of interests and
realpolitik methods," commented the former US
ambassador Gene Cretz. Libya's current crisis looks
like Gaddafi's biggest challenge yet
Libya protests: 'Now we've seen the
blood our fears have gone'
As determined demonstrators against
Gaddafi headed to the vast, palm-tree fringed Green
Square in central Tripoli on Monday, protesters
talked of the gathering as the "new Tahrir Square".
Inspired by Egypt's revolution, they
vowed to sleep out in the centre of Libyan's
Mediterranean port capital there until "the job was
done" and the Libyan dictator had fled.
With the death toll estimated by
Libyan rights groups to be more than 400 in five
days, this seemed an almost impossibly dangerous
challenge. But shocked by the scale of the violent
repression of the protests, many felt they had
nothing left to lose, according to exiled activists
who described the scene.
With phonelines cut off all day, the
internet connection patchy, and no foreign
journalists allowed in, a news blackout on the
ground disorientated residents who couldn't contact
relatives. Reporters had to rely on accounts by
human rights networks and exiled opposition
activists.
But within hours, reports began to
filter through about the deafening sound of military
aircraft targeting demonstrators in what opposition
groups warned was a "massacre". For the second night
running, Gaddafi appeared to have deployed a
shoot-to-kill policy to disperse the protests that
had spread to the capital from the east of the
country.
At least three people were killed in
Tajura on the Tripoli's outskirts as military
aircraft fired on protesters and bombed residential
areas, according to one Libyan activist based in
London who was in contact with Tripoli residents.
Armed men in 4x4s were reportedly driving around the
city amid sustained gun fire.
One Libyan activist said: "Gaddafi
may be implementing his son's warning that if the
Libyans don't just abandon their protests and accept
his rule again he would give them a bloodbath. Will
the world accept such behaviour from a government
towards its people?".
The mood in Tripoli and its
residential suburbs was tense and chaotic, according
to accounts from residents. Some described locals
barricading themselves into neighbourhoods or
staying inside, afraid of foreign mercenaries paid
by Gaddafi to shoot to kill. Since Sunday, some
police stations had been set alight, the building
where the General People's Congress, or parliament,
meets was on fire on Monday morning, agencies
reported.
"We can't trust anyone, there are
armed mercenaries around us, ready to shoot us for
no reason," one family told French radio. Some
Tunisians who had fled the city described a
nightmare atmosphere in Tripoli where shots were
heard through Sunday night and again on Monday
afternoon and people wouldn't leave their home for
fear of clashes between pro-Gaddafi crowds and
demonstrators.
Ali Zeidan, a senior member of the
Libyan League of Human Rights who is in Munich,
pieced together the pattern of violence in the
Libyan capital that began early on Monday.
"Protesters gathered for very big street
demonstrations. Then at 3am, forces came without any
warning and started shooting live ammunition into
the crowd. Some of the demonstrators ran, others
fell. There were about 60 killed and around 130
injured. It wasn't the police, it wasn't the army,
it was Gaddafi's elite guard assisted by paid
foreign African fighters," he told the Guardian.
"Then this morning Tripoli was eerily
quiet. All shops, offices, pharmacies, banks were
closed. It was as quiet as a Sunday in London 50
years ago."
He said all morning people had
prepared for renewed protests on Monday evening in
Green Square, with some people making the journey
from outside Tripoli.
"Libyans used to be afraid. But after
they saw the blood, they aren't afraid anymore, they
are angry.
"Everybody knows somebody who has
been killed or injured, everyone is very angry. What
Gaddafi's son said made people furious, it's as if
the people can just be treated like trash. Now
people don't want to go back to what they had for
the last 42 years [of Gaddafi's rule]. Now they feel
no fear, if there are deaths people accept that we
must carry on. Protesters will go to the centre
again today and keep demonstrating until the job is
done."
He added: "This is
a new feeling for Libya:
people look at their situation where there is no
dignity for humans, no respect. The Libyan people
are fed up, they are a patient, kind, quiet people,
but now there's a feeling that to the outside world
they aren't being respected as humans. There's a
very strong feeling among young people: what do we
have to live for? There's no life, no education,
there's no jobs, no sport, no internet, no
entertainment. What do we have? Nothing."
One demonstrator posted
an account to
the Alive in Libya website, describing the attacks
on the crowd: "Heavy fire, like it was a war. Until
you can't even hear or even see what's happening.
"The demonstrators scattered, and
they suddenly brought in their gangs chanting 'Fatih'
[One of Gaddafi's titles] and they re-entered the
square. We took shelter in the neighbouring
buildings for a while then retreated. There was also
strikes by anti-aircraft missiles, we saw this in
front of us. Those that I saw with my own eyes: two
wounded, one shot in the head."
One young woman in Tripoli wrote by
email to the Guardian: "The general sentiment here
is mixed. One of hope, fear and excitement. Fear not
of being hurt or shot but of the unknown. Hope for
change. Excitement for what's to come. There is a
complete blackout of information. Nothing official,
nothing confirmed. Who's winning, how many are dead.
Who's still here? Who's left running with their tail
between their legs. The only source of information
is that between each other."
In the east of Libya, where support
for Gaddafi is traditionally weak, the city of
Benghazi – where over 200 people are believed to
have been killed in five days of violence – was said
to have fallen to the protesters after police
retreated. Residents were reported to be organising
vigilante groups to protect themselves and
distribute food. In Paris, the International
Federation of Human Rights estimated the death toll
at between 300 and 400 by Monday afternoon.
The group also reported soldiers in
the east had defected and several towns were in the
hands of the opposition. Tunisians who had left
Libya described to Agence France-Presse how the
disturbances had now reached the west of the
country. In Zaouia, 35 miles (60km) west of Tripoli,
a Tunisian hairdresser described how police had
abandoned the town on Sunday after days of
confrontation between pro- Gaddafi groups and
protesters. Shops were closed, buildings had been
attacked and burned and people had stolen police
cars.
Souhayr Belhassen, head of the
International Federation of Human Rights, said she
had gathered accounts from Tunisians and others who
had left Libya, describing how property belonging to
Gaddafi had been attacked and police stations set
alight. "The revolt is heading to the capital," she
said. She said senior figures including ambassadors
and security forces, were abandoning Gaddafi. "They
have jumped ship and the boat is sinking," she said.
|
